TOM PLANT'S HOUSTON REAL ESTATE BLOG

Sales of single family homes in Houston’s Southampton neighborhood slowed substantially in the Second Quarter of 2010. Southampton has been a bright spot in Houston’s housing market for the Second Half of 2009 and the First Quarter of 2010. The number of sales in The First Quarter of 2010 was double the level of 2009. However, during the Second Quarter of 2010 there were 6 homes sold compared to 19 in 2009. No homes priced between $1 million and $2 million sold in 2010 despite 14 being on the market.  Here are the details:

Based upon information from the Houston Association of Realtors® or its MLS for the period January 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010.

Here is the comparison to previous years:

Based upon information from the Houston Association of Realtors® or its MLS for the period January 1, 2006 to June 30, 2010.

Houston’s Southampton subdivision continues to be a sought after place to live. Sales of homes priced under $1 million increased 75% compared to First Quarter 2009. The inventory of such homes is under 6 months.

However, demand for Southampton homes priced over $1 million has not kept pace. There are currently 10 $1 million plus homes on the market and only one sold during the First Quarter. Right now, it must be a very special home to sell for more than $1 million in Southampton.

Detailed statistics are:

HOUSTON SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
FIRST QUARTER COMPARISON 2009 AND 2010 – NUMBER OF HOMES

Current Listings as of April 1, 2010

Ten days ago I advised you here on this Blog “Given the mid-month slow down and early review of the statistics, I expect February results to be slightly below to very slightly ahead of February 2009. The difference from last February should be approximately plus or minus two hundred homes.”

HAR released the February statistics today and sales of single family homes in February 2010 were down compared to 2009 by 196 homes or 5.7%. The number of single family homes sold was 3,251, which is 29% more than were sold in January. Pending sales in February increased 14% over January.

The last quarter of 2009 showed strong signs of residential recovery in Houston. The results for the first two months of 2010 cause me to be very cautiously optimistic. This is a change from being generally optimistic in the last quarter of 2009. We will need to watch March results carefully to try to discern what to expect this spring.

I plan to analyze many of the close-in neighborhoods to understand if some are performing much better than others. In the second half of 2009, Southampton clearly outperformed other neighborhoods such as River Oaks, Tanglewood and West University. We will see if that has continued into 2010. Check my blog frequently for those neighborhood analyses.

I have discussed previously how the improvement in single family home sales began in the lower price ranges and is slowly moving up the scale. An improved sales rate has come more slowly to Houston’s close-in neighborhoods because they have relatively higher priced homes than the outer suburbs. We are beginning to see improvement close-in. The number of sales of homes Inside Loop 610 in November was 46.3% better than November 2008 compared to 32.8% for all of Houston. However, the number of sales Inside Loop 610 in the past six months increased 2.8% over the same period in 2008 compared to 3.8% for all of Houston.

Shown below for some of Houston’s close-in neighborhoods is a comparison of sales for 2009 compared to 2008 for November and the six month period of June through November. Except for the total area Inside Loop 610, the change is shown in absolute numbers rather than percentage due to the small numbers involved.

Please note, with the exception of Southampton, the neighborhoods made up primarily of more expensive homes continue to lag behind 2008.

Spectacular Southampton new construction by Frankel Builders. Beautiful paneled study, spacious den off huge gourmet island kitchen and breakfast room, formal dining, 7-inch walnut floors, travertine, lots of built-ins. Backyard features large pavilion, summer kitchen, fireplace and cabana room with half bath! Large gameroom upstairs, gorgeous master suite, elevator capable*. *=Per Seller

List Price – $1,399,000                                                                                        1817 Wroxton, Southampton

Open Sunday November 8 – 3:00 to 5:00

Houston’s Southampton neighborhood, a sought after close-in location, performed better than other close-in neighborhoods during the Third Quarter of 2009. While small in number, single family home sales increased 233% in Southampton in the Third Quarter 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. A similar analysis of West University showed an increase of 24.8%, River Oaks a decline of 14.3% and all of Houston an increase of 1.5%.

The Southampton increase was in all price ranges. While considered an affluent neighborhood, during the relevant time period Southampton did not have any homes on the market priced more than $2 million. This is the price range that has not moved anywhere in Houston this year.

With very little inventory on the market, Southampton has one of the few clear Sellers’ markets in Houston. Sellers in Southampton, however, must keep in mind that although their neighborhood is in demand, Buyers are influenced by the dynamics and news of other neighborhoods. Homes priced aggressively in this environment can be expected to sit unsold. Homes priced properly in Southampton are selling well.

Here are the third Quarter numbers for Southampton:

The statistics for Houston home sales in September are still being compiled. HAR normally releases results for the previous month after the 15^th of the following month. However, I can report the number of single family homes sold during September 2009 will be more than 25% higher than September 2008. While the comparison is against the month in which Hurricane Ike hit, it is also the month in which the economic recession found Houston. Sales in the months following September were also dismal. Sales in January 2009 were 21% lower than September 2008. Sales in September 2009 will be higher than the months subsequent to September 2008 until at least May 2009. I expect to see significant sales gains over the same month last year for at least 5 months.

Most Close-in Neighborhoods have seen sales in recent months improve. Here is a summary of recent comments I have posted about specific neighborhoods. For detailed information see the previous posts:

River Oaks/Avalon – Sales are improving over earlier months but still a Buyers’ Market.

Southampton Place – A Sellers’ Market with less than 7 months inventory but impacted by impressions caused by other areas in the city.

West University/Southside Place – Significant sales improvement. In six months from October 2008 through March 2009 17 homes over $1 million sold in subsequent six months April 2009 through September 2009 there were 52 homes over $1 millions sold.

Southgate Neighborhood – Sales are doing well under $750,000. Homes over $750,000 are not selling with more than 4 years inventory.

Bellaire – Recovering more slowly than some other close-in neighborhoods. Homes over $1 million still have more than 1 year inventory.

Tanglewood – New construction is overbuilt with more than 2 years inventory.

Houston’s Southampton neighborhood, by the numbers is a Sellers’ market. During the first nine months of 2009 40% more homes were sold than in the same period 2008. The median price is up and inventory is down. As of October 1, the inventory level in Southampton was 6.5 months, a seller’s market by most measurements.

In previous posts I have explained how the inventory level is calculated and how to interpret it. Please read those previous posts for more information.

Shown below is a table showing inventory levels in River Oaks/Avalon by price range using both the Standard Method and the Six Month Method. The Standard Method uses sales for the past 12 months and the Six Month Method uses sales from the past six months. With the Six Month Method showing an inventory level below four months for homes under $1 million, there is a need for more homes on the market, or price increase can be expected. The six month level of inventory for homes over $1 million is very different from most areas of Houston.

If you want more detailed information about the Southampton neighborhood or any others, call me at 713.942.6895 or email tom@tomdplant.com.

                                MONTHS OF INVENTORY
                                        Southampton
                                       October 1, 2009

Bucking the trend throughout the city, home sales in Houston’s Southampton neighborhood increased during the first 8 months of 2009 compared to the same period of 2008. While sales in all of Houston are down 10.1% and down inside Loop 610 13.3%, sales in the Southampton neighborhood they are up 29%. The Southampton neighborhood has 609 homes with a median value over $750,000, much higher than Houston’s median of $153,000. Located near Rice University, Rice Village and Downtown Houston, Southampton is a much sought after neighborhood. Here are the details for the first 8 months of 2009 compared to 2008